Abuja: Today, Africa contributes less than 5% of the world's energy-related emissions, despite being home to 19% of Earth's population. By 2060, the continent's population is expected to reach 28% of the global total, with its share of energy-related emissions projected to remain a modest 9%.
According to African Press Organization, when considering these statistics compiled in the recently released African Energy Chambers State of African Energy: 2026 Outlook Report, it is evident that Africa's responsibility for climate change is minimal. However, Western advocates continue to call for a universal rapid phase-out of fossil fuels, which does not align with Africa's unique needs and infrastructure limitations.
Low per-capita energy use positions Africa to drive global decarbonization efforts. However, this development pathway must respect the unique needs of Africans. Infrastructure challenges such as a lack of grid capacity, outdated transmission lines, and significant energy deficits hinder large-scale renewable energy project integration. Addressing these challenges requires not only new assets but also modernizing grids, promoting energy efficiency, improving regulatory environments, and fostering local expertise.
Transitioning to a low-carbon economy requires significant upfront investment, which many African countries struggle to secure due to perceived political and financial risks. Inconsistent policies and slow permitting processes create uncertainty for investors. Despite dependency on fossil fuels, Africa's evolving energy profile, including hydrogen and critical minerals, has the potential to shape global climate outcomes.
The 2026 Outlook reports that by 2035, Africa could produce over 9 million tonnes of low-carbon hydrogen annually. This potential is driven by Africa's vast solar and wind resources, extensive land availability, and proximity to major export markets. Major green hydrogen projects are concentrated in Namibia, South Africa, Mauritania, Egypt, and Morocco. Namibia leads in green hydrogen development with the USD10 billion Hyphen project, expected to produce over 300,000 tons of hydrogen annually for export to Europe.
In South Africa, the national "Hydrogen Valley" hosts several large-scale projects supported by public and private investment. The Coega Green Ammonia Project and the Prieska Power Reserve Project are notable initiatives. Mauritania, Morocco, and Egypt are also actively pursuing green hydrogen projects, with significant investment and international collaboration.
Africa's critical minerals, including cobalt, copper, gold, lithium, and platinum group metals, position the continent as a pivotal player in the global supply chain during the energy transition. The demand for critical minerals is expected to quintuple by 2035, offering strategic opportunities for mineral-rich African nations.
Securing long-term investment in refining and processing infrastructure necessitates stable regulatory frameworks. Regional cooperation and shared clean-energy infrastructure are essential strategies for overcoming fragmented markets and landlocked geographies. Building local technical capacity and enabling technology transfer are also crucial for Africa's refining ambitions.
African leaders have the opportunity to move up the value chain into processing and refining, unlocking significant economic value and helping nations overcome energy poverty through sustained investment in infrastructure, governance, and skills development.