Southern Africa Key Message Update: Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes are expected to emerge in some areas of the region in October, September 2021


Key Messages

Most areas of the region continue to experience favorable food security outcomes with Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes ongoing as households consume own-produced foods. In areas where Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are ongoing, households rely more on markets for their food and non-food needs. Although, in areas of southern Madagascar affected by severe drought and in conflict-affected areas of Mozambique and DRC, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are ongoing. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to emerge in October in areas of southern Malawi, Lesotho, and Zimbabwe, as many poor households are expected to deplete all own-produced stocks and increase their reliance on market purchases for food.

Southern Madagascar remains one of the main areas of concern in Southern Africa due to the poor production caused by drought. In some southern districts, the sweet potato harvest and humanitarian assistance delivery is somewhat stabilizing food security outcomes with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes ongoing. During the October to January period, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes are likely in some areas of southern Madagascar as the cassava production is expected to be near zero and households are overselling their livestock and productive assets to meet their food needs.

Conflict continues to disrupt livelihood activities in areas of DRC and northern Mozambique, driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through at least January 2022. In DRC, despite the government declaring a state of siege in North Kivu and Ituri provinces, conflict and attacks continue by armed actors. According to OCHA, since June, nearly 606,000 people have been displaced in these provinces. In Mozambique, the intensification of the government offensive in Cabo Delgado with the support of foreign troops resulted in the re-taking of insurgent-controlled land. Some IDPs households have started to return to their places of origin. Although, many have limited ability to re-establish their livelihoods and rely significantly on humanitarian assistance.

The rate of the confirmed number of COVID-19 cases has slowed down in Zimbabwe, Malawi, Mozambique, and Madagascar, leading to a decline a near end to the third wave in Southern Africa. As a result, many governments have started to relax COVID-19 restriction measures. This has resulted in some improvements in economic and business activities across many towns. Although many poor urban households continue to struggle to meet their non-food needs, where Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes continue due to the income losses associated with COVID-19 restrictions.

Source: Famine Early Warning System Network

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